Urban Institute researchers use the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model to predict results as if the Affordable Care Act were fully implemented in 2011. They contrast these results with the pre-reform baseline estimates for the same year. They find that uninsurance rates among the nonelderly would decrease in all 50 states and in Washington, D.C., ranging from 1 percentage point in Massachusetts to 17 percentage points in Texas. There would be $82.3 billion in new federal Medicaid and exchange subsidies flowing to the states, led by California ($9.5 billion), Texas ($8.2 billion), and Florida ($6.7 billion).
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